Welcome

Welcome to Aboy Energy & Financial Markets (TM). This site is devoted primarily to monthly analysis of the commodity markets in order to determine setup conditions. Starting in May 2009 we will have a special focus on Energy Markets. Additionally, the site is devoted to evidence-based investement and trading research. Specifically, it focuses on providing well-researched and quantitative analysis of financial information and strategies for stocks, futures, commodities, ETFs, and mutual funds. While the techniques employed draw from technical analysis, fundamental valuation, risk-management, and modern portflio theory, the analysis and conclusions provided are primarily based on the sound fields of statistics and statistical time-series analysis.


Motivation

Energy markets such as crude oil, heating oil, brent crude oil, natural gas, propane gas, and RBOB gasoline have critical consequences for the future of our global economy, economic development, and investments in renewable energy technologies and infrastructure. The price of oil, for instance, has huge implications for all the other commodities and equities.

With regards to financial markets in general, there is a wealth of financial information available. This includes thousands of websites and advisory newsletters, as well as hundres of books ranging from personal finance, portfolio management, and stock investments to day trading and scalping trading. Despite this apparent wealth of information, most of it is highly unreliable. In our monthly commodity newsletter we analyze setup conditions for markets and it is evident that brokers’ newsletters and professional sentiment are often wrong. In part because of this, small speculators also do very bad (buying highs and selling lows). Furthermore, most of the simple strategies presented in trading seminars, books, and websites do not withstand even the most basic statistical testing based on historical data. The purpose of this site is to provide evidence-based conclusions derived from quantitative analysis. At the moment, one of the few works that employs a well-researched and quantitative approach to stock investment is the seminal book by Dr. Jeremy Siegel “Stocks for the Long Run.” This classic is now considered the definitive guide to financial market returns and long-term investment strategies. Our objective is to conduct a similar study to document the performance of some of the strategies available for short-term and position trading in the energy, commodities, stock and financial markes and to offer novel approaches.

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